The “Doherty Report” is being sold as an economic & health model “created by experts” to move Australia from suppression to opening up and “living with Covid”.
On the 19th of August, Premier Gladys Berejiklian said in the NSW daily update “as the Doherty Report says once you get to 80% double doses and you have to open up”. (9 mins 40 seconds).
On the 23rd of August Prime Minister Morrison said in Parliament “The plan as we set out very clearly about…that when we reach 70%, and we reach 80%, we can move through to phase B of that plan, those marks have been set by the Doherty analysis that was undertaken Mr Speaker”.
I spent a late evening reading it.
Neither of these statements are true and the report is being misrepresented.
The report is neither an economic model nor does it set any targets.
It is a report commissioned by the National Cabinet to model health scenarios going from Phase A (where we are now- suppressing Covid) to Phase B (reducing lockdowns, ramping up flights into the country and reducing quarantine) of the National Plan with various levels of vaccination targets.
Note that there is also Phase C and Phase D of opening up. The Doherty Report doesn’t look at these phases.
Specifically, based on a set of assumptions, it models what daily new infections, workplace absenteeism from sickness, occupied ward beds, occupied ICU beds and daily deaths would look like under scenarios of 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% vaccination rates, for those aged 16 and above and based on two doses of vaccination for each person.
About 80% of the Australian population are aged 16 and over, so these targets are actually 40%, 48%, 56% and 64% of the total population.
It doesn’t look like anyone has actually read the report.
They only run the simulation for 180 days.
